John Nash is smiling somewhere right now.  While the entire financial universe debated and prepared for doomsday scenarios to precipitate a near 4% drop in the S&P 500 last week, a simple analysis of game theory similar to the one I outlined in last Monday’s commentary would have yielded a conclusion that predicted ultimate cooperation among the various factions would construct a palatable deal that avoided default and arguably put deficit reduction on a path that precludes a credit downgrade from the ratings agencies.  Credit Speaker Boehner for recognizing his weaker hand and allowing Obama to keep the decisions pertaining to the debt ceiling and the budget bundled together which was necessary in reaching this ultimate resolution.

Although Mr. Boehner was rewarded with an agreement that does not include revenue enhancements enacted via new tax legislation, Continue reading »

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As we close the page on July, I would have expected to speak of potential month end asset allocation flows skewed for a late day upside move in stocks as treasuries have outperformed equities during the month.  Given that both the average closing and intraday NYSE TICK readings over the past 22 sessions have again reached oversold levels, I most likely would have discussed the ramifications for an imminent major bottom in the market as well.  Certainly, Thursday’s Jobless Claims report which dropped below the critical 400K level for the first time since April also would have deserved ample attention.  

I even could have written a full commentary on a preview of this morning’s Q2 Advanced GDP figures as well as the sustainability of last month’s big bounce in the Chicago PMI.  I should have so much material for discussion today Continue reading »

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Wednesday, July 27th, 2011

I honestly have very little insight this morning as the shenanigans in Washington reminds me of two novice chess playing children, devoid of any other pieces, pointlessly chasing each other around the board solely with the king without their realizing a stalemate has occurred.  I suppose my declaration of a vacuous commentary hints that readers should simply come back tomorrow for a fresh approach at analyzing the markets, but since you have already come this far, you might as well patronize me and finish today’s offering.

After scanning the various opinions on the current crisis, I have yet to find any other strategist who claims that not only is a deal a lot closer than appearances would indicate, but also that Speaker Boehner knows he has no chance of winning and only displays obstinance in an effort to secure his electoral base which swept him into power last November.  I have argued that his two step plan represents the only chance he has of not losing.  The bill, never a popular Continue reading »

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